How the NHL Draft Lottery odds are totally screwing the Philadelphia Flyers – Broad Street Hockey (blog)

We all know that the NHL is specifically rigged against our team, the Flyers. But now, we have definitive proof. A huge thanks to Micah @IneffectiveMath for bringing this issue to my attention.

Let’s talk about the math of the NHL Draft Lottery, which will be held on April 29. There’s a nice explanation of how it works on hockeyviz.com, but I’ll cover the important points. If you don’t care about math, feel free to skip to the end of this piece, or even share it without reading. Just make sure you’re mad about it.

You may recall that last year, the Maple Leafs had a 20% chance to win the first overall pick, followed by the Oilers’ 13.50% chance, the Canucks’ 11.5% chance, etc. This year, due to the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights, the NHL has to modify some things about their lottery odds.

According to expansion draft rules, Vegas gets the same odds as the third-worst team, which is Arizona this year. So, Vegas has an 11.5% chance of winning the draft lottery.

But that’s added in with the rest of the teams, so the probabilities now sum to 111.5%. As we know, having 111.5% of anything is only mathematically possible if it’s the amount of effort that a player puts into a hockey game.

So we must divide every team’s probability by 111.5% to rescale things, which slightly hurts every team’s chances across the board.

Rescaled NHL Draft Lottery odds to accommodate Las Vegas NHL Rank Team P(1st Pick) Rescaled NHL Rank Team P(1st Pick) Rescaled 30 Avalanche 20% 17.94% 29 Canucks 13.50% 12.11% 28 Coyotes 11.50% 10.31% N/A Golden Knights 11.50% 10.31% 27 Devils 9.50% 8.52% 26 Sabres 8.50% 7.62% 25 Red Wings 7.50% 6.73% 24 Stars 6.50% 5.83% 23 Panthers 6%

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