Fantasy number crunch: Best, worst Week 9 matchups – NFL.com

What truly defines a “productive fantasy player”? Math geeks know that simply considering the old industry standards of “Fantasy Points Against” and “Player Cumulative Fantasy Points” will leave way too much to error to be statistically reliable.

That’s why I helped create a system that predicts player performance and provides the actual strength of an opponent and actual player production values. When used, this sytem has proven to be up to 37 percent more accurate than the metrics that everyone else in your league is using.

The system gives you a “Player Rating,” “Defense Rating,” and a “Matchup Rating.” The ratings are based on the most advanced and accurate mathematical algorithm in fantasy football, and take into account the following factors:

» Adjusted Player scoring based on strength of their previous opponents
» Adjusted Defense scoring based on the strength of the players they have faced at each position
» Whether the player and/or defense plays better at home or away
» How the player compares against other players within their same position
» How defenses compare against other defenses against the same positions
» … and many more!

Sound complicated? Don’t worry — it’s simple to understand. All you need to know is that the player, defense or matchup with the higher rating is the better option. That’s it. Leave the number crunching to the geeks.

Use this system as the basis for your fantasy decisions to take the guesswork out of winning in fantasy football and get the edge on the competition.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The defense ratings for this week are based on numbers from the first six weeks of the 2014 regular season. “Statistically” a three week data sample out of a 16 week fantasy season is enough to draw valuable conclusions. The data continues to become more accurate each week. Plan …read more

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