2017's 1st MLB Playoff Odds Report – Sports On Earth

Last year, to help track the Major League Baseball standings in a way that told us more than the actual standings, I wrote a monthly column on Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds Report. To remind why the Odds Report is so handy:

I always rely on Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds Report. Updated daily, the BP playoff odds use projections, simulations and games already played to put together the closest picture we have to how a team’s season is truly going … and where it’s likely to finish. Key to the odds working: They’re a dynamic document, constantly shifting and adjusting with the daily information. You can have your standings. The Playoff Odds Report tells me what’s really happening.

After this weekend, the MLB season will be three weeks old. That’s way too early to tell anything at all, right? Well, tell that to the Blue Jays. We’ll be back on the 21st of every month for an update. But here’s the first installment of our Playoff Odds Report Tracker.

Teams above .500 that shouldn’t get so excited

Baltimore Orioles. Yep, no team has felt the wrath of the PECOTA gods over the past half decade than the Orioles, a team the Baseball Prospectus formula is always skeptical about. Yet, nevertheless, they persist. The O’s — who have the best record in the American League over the past five years — are in a familiar spot: In first place, with PECOTA screaming they can’t stay there. They’re at 17.9 percent odds to make the playoffs. (The “playoffs,” in this case, means “reaching at least the AL Wild Card Game.”) One suspects the Orioles are undaunted.

Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the first fortnight of baseball, in first place in the National League Central behind

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